[SMM Analysis] Refined Nickel Production Increased Slightly in September, Spot Cargo Transactions Recovered Compared to August

In September 2025, SMM refined nickel production increased 1% MoM, up 13% YoY, with cumulative growth of 24% YoY, and the domestic refined nickel enterprise operating rate stood at 66%. Refined nickel enterprises' operating rates diverged in September, as some cut production due to tight raw material supply, but leading large plants maintained normal output as planned. Coupled with delays in production increases from newly commissioned refined nickel projects, overall domestic production showed no significant fluctuations. Price-wise, the average spot price of SMM #1 refined nickel in September was 122,623 yuan/mt, up 678 yuan/mt MoM, with prices rising slightly. In the spot market, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel in September was 2,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt MoM, while the premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel ranged from -150-200 yuan/mt, lower than the previous month. Demand side, downstream demand in September fell short of expectations. Spot trading volume recovered slightly compared to August, with buyers only stockpiling for rigid demand when nickel prices were at relatively low levels, showing limited purchasing enthusiasm. Looking ahead, affected by tight intermediate product raw material supply and temporary delays in new refined nickel projects, refined nickel output is unlikely to see substantial increases in the short term. October refined nickel production is expected to increase slightly by 2% MoM.